If you have AK and you're sure the villian has jacks/queens, why should you call his all in if he's the favourite to win? For that matter any pair, as he already has you beat and is the favourite going in? You are just a slight underdog with AK vs any pair other than AA and KK, i.e. It's almost a coinflip, probability-wise. Feb 16, 2009 Then Pr(AK given opponent has AA) = 8/1225 =0.65% or about 152 to 1 against. The same result applies for opponent holding KK. If you are asking what is the probability you will get AA and your only opponent has AA or KK, then the answer is 2/220 x 0.0065 =.00005937 or about 16800 to 1.
Running Into An Opponent Holding Aces When You Have Been Dealt Kings Is Always Unfortunate - This Look At The Probability Of KK vs AA Gives You The Explanations You Need
It is going to happen to you many times in a poker career of any length at all – you hold 2 kings and get as much money into the pot as possible pre-flop (or on a safe looking flop) and end up running into 2 aces. This article looks at the probability of this match-up and goes on to explain that, as bad as you may feel, there is rarely any real need to change the way you approach this situation. This article compliments our introduction to Pre-flop Poker Probability which explains this important area in depth.
KK vs AA – The Basic Numbers And Probability
First the actual numbers depend on how many opponents are still to act, and to a lesser extent how many have already folded (since they are less likely to be folding hands which contain an ace).
Chance of you getting dealt KK in any one hand is 221 to 1 – so 0.4% of the time you’ll see 2 Kings in your hand before the flop.
Chance of any one opponent getting dealt 2 aces pre-flop is the same, 221-1, but we need to take into account that there are 2 kings ‘accounted for’ here. That is to say their cards came from 50 unknown cards and not the full 52. So, the chances are a little bit bigger – 0.48% in fact – or around once every 205 hands.
Of course this is per opponent, so you need to adjust for many opponents. Here we could get tricky and start to account for the folded cards, but since the effect will be very small we can just multiply it up in the following format to give a good idea of the true AA vs KK odds.
Number Of Opponents
AA vs KK odds
1 Opponent
0.48%
2 Opponent
0.96%
3 Opponent
1.44%
4 Opponent
1.92%
5 Opponent
2.40%
6 Opponent
2.88%
7 Opponent
3.36%
8 Opponent
3.84%
9 Opponent
4.32%
This clearly shows that at full table of players you are only likely to run those Kings into Aces less than 1 time in 20 – in itself this is a strong case for playing them as strongly as possible pre-flop – however there is an even better way of looking at the same numbers.
KK vs AA – Probability In Relation To The Hands Your Opponent Would Raise
Poker Odds Aa Vs Ak
Here is the situation – half way through a poker tournament the blinds and antes are starting to get large in relation to the stacks. You raise before the flop with KK and are re-raised an amount that would commit both you and your opponent to the pot if you call (so effectively all-in). How can we make an informed decision here that will win us chips in the long run?
While in this situation you would rarely fold without a read on an opponent that they have aces ridiculously often here, the thought process below can help you in situations where you have a wider range of holdings.
Ask This Question: What Is The Range Of Hands My Opponent Could Have Made This Big Raise With?
For example, if in the above situation you estimated your opponent to be reasonably tight you might easily assume he would raise with Jacks, Queens, Kings, Aces, Ace-King or Ace-Queen Suited.
You can then use this estimate to work out your winning chances against the complete range of hands. This can be done using a free poker odds calculator such as Poker Stove or it can be done manually – taking into account that the fact that you hold two kings reduces the chances of your opponent holding KK or A-K.
Using Poker Stove we can see that against the range of hands even an extremely tight opponent might raise with we have a massive 63% equity in the pot and a clear call… if your opponent plays a wider range or includes just a small percentage of bluffs here then your chances are even bigger.
My message is clear – if you are dealt KK pre-flop you need a very clear read to fold against a single opponent. Play those Kings like the best hand and wish your opponent the best those times you run into aces – and you will show a big profit over time.
Of course it can pay to find the poker sites at which opponents are not smart enough to understand the implications of assessing odds and probabilities. Those players interested in growing their bankrolls significantly by finding the fishiest opponents should check out our Interactive Fish-O-Meter widget… it will help locate the fishiest tables for your specific needs.
Click Here To Check Out The Profitable Games At 888 Poker! Everyone Gets Free $88 In Tokens And A 100% Matched Welcome Bonus
More Great Poker Articles!
Poker Guide
Learn to Play Poker: Getting Started
Poker Game Variations
Texas Hold ‘em Guide
Learn to Play Texas Hold ‘em
Hold ‘em Gameplay
Texas Hold ‘em Strategy
Beginner Hold ‘em Strategy
Intermediate Hold ‘em Strategy
Blackjack Guide
Learn to Play Blackjack
Blackjack Dealing
Blackjack Strategy
Blackjack Resources
Roulette Guide
Learn to Play Roulette
Roulette Strategy
Roulette Types and Variations
Roulette Resources
Slots Guide
Learn to Play Slots
Slots Games and Variations
Slots Tips
Once you familiarize yourself with basic Texas Hold ‘em play, hand rankings and dealing, you should learn about the odds and probabilities associated with different aspects of the game. While it may be impossible to calculate precise odds mid-hand, particularly given you’ll never see your opponents’ cards until all decisions have been made, knowing when to play (and when not to play) different hands typically requires more than just good instinct.
In Texas Hold ‘em, winners are often decided before the community cards are even laid out, so the chances of being dealt a strong starting hand is something many players think.
Calculating Texas Hold ‘em Odds
To understand the odds of drawing any particular starting hand, you’ll have to consider all of the factors that go into the deal of a hand. Considering a shuffle to completely randomize the order of the cards, the biggest factors that will affect a draw are the number of players at the table and your own position relevant to the dealer. Also consider that there are four cards of any given value in each deck and there are 169 different hole card combinations. That being said, there’s a roughly one in 1326 chance that players will be dealt any specific hand, so it’s important to know what kind of odds you should keep in mind whenever you step to the poker table.
Pre Flop
You have a 55:1 chance of being dealt a pair of Jacks or higher.
Your Texas Hold’em experience will begin with your hole cards, and while you cannot change the cards that are dealt your way, it’s good to know what to expect. While World Series of Poker reruns may make it seem like someone at the table will be dealt pocket kings every hand, starting with a monster hand is rarer than you may imagine. For more on Pre Flop strategy see our guide here.
Quick Odds
While an extensive list of the probabilities for preflop hands could fill a book, here are some quick odds to consider when you’re peeking at your cards for the first time.
Being dealt a pocket pair: 16:1
Being dealt suited cards: 3.2:1
Being dealt suited connectors: 24:1
Being dealt AK: 82:1
Being dealt two cards of jack or higher: 10:1
Being dealt AA, KK, QQ or JJ: 55:1
The Flop
The flop is a game changer in every sense of the words. With more cards in your hand, players will get their first real taste of what the final outcome will look like. That being said, players will want to think about the odds for how their hand could turn out before they start placing or calling bets. For more on Post Flop strategy see our guide here.
Quick Odds
Though the presented odds may be mathematically accurate, they do present a best case scenario that you won’t always find yourself in at the table. These calculations don’t take into account the probabilities of the card or cards you are looking for turning up as burn cards or in your opponents’ hands, so keep that in mind when considering your next move.
Hitting a pair on the flop: 2:1
Pocket pair improving to three of a kind on the flop: 7:1
Flop being three of a kind: 424:1
Odds of flopping a flush with suited hole cards: 118:1
The odds of flopping a straight can be a bit harder to pin down. Depending on your starting hand, there are any number of card combinations that could lead to a flopped straight. Those hands that have the more flexibility when it comes to straight draws, particularly middling connectors (those between 5 and 9), have the strongest chances of hitting on the flop because there are more cards that could allow for their straight to hit. The wider the gap between your starting cards, the worse your chances are.
The Turn and River
Naturally, as the hand progresses and fewer cards remain to be dealt, the odds of making any particular hand become slimmer and slimmer. That being said, you’ll want to look at the odds for a hand from beginning to end as well as those from stage to stage.
Quick Odds
Your odds change as each new card is dealt.
Over the course of a full hand, these scenarios could play out
One pair on flop improving to two pair or a set by the river: 4:1
Catching an ace on the turn or river: 7:1
Open ended straight hitting by the river: 2:1
Gutshot straight draw hit by the river: 5:1
Pocket pair improving to set by river: 10:1
Going runner runner for a flush: 23:1
Going runner runner for a straight: 67:1
Pot and Implied Odds
In addition to the odds that your cards will pair or better, experienced players know that pot odds, that is, the ratio of the size of the pot to the cost of a call, play an important role in proper Hold’em strategy. With all of the risks that are inherently involved in games like poker, players won’t get far if they don’t decide to gamble every so often – and pot odds allow you to make smarter decision when it comes time to place your money on the line. Pot odds take into consideration the likelihood of making a hand to establish a decent risk vs. reward ratio.
Another important statistic for players to keep in mind is ‘implied odds,’ which factor in the likely size and frequency of any betting that may come in later rounds of play. These come into play post flop and will be a factor until the river is dealt, and unlike most other Texas hold ’em odds, implied odds will be entirely based on your read on your opponents’ betting habits and aggression.
To calculate effective pot odds, consider your position in the hand and relative strength, then make a note of the amount of money currently in the pot. If you’re in a position to call, think of how much you stand to win should your hand come out ahead, as establishing a solid return on investment can help turn a questionable call into a big win. If no one has bet, then pot odds can help you deduce what size bet you will want to make in order to shift the statistical probabilities in your favor. With a sound bet, you could either make the continued investment not worth the potential gain or place a value wager designed to elicit a call from any remaining opponents. You will have to decide whether or not your chances of winning are worth risking the amount you could lose if you are wrong – a fine line for some players, but one that must be crossed often. For more on Texas Hold’em pot size and strategy see our guide here.